Prediction of annual electricity sales to rural customers using non-structural models

Abstract

The quality of prediction of annual electricity sales to rural customers made on the basis of non-structural models: classical and coming from the theory of deterministic chaos were analysed in the study. The analysis has shown that in conditions of large changes of annual electricity sales, forecasting made on the basis of Prigogine’s and Schuster’s models are characterised by higher quality than forecasting made on the basis of classical non-structural models.