Abstrakt
The research was conducted on variability of precipitation in selected stations of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) in north-eastern Poland during the years 1951–2000. Individual months of the vegetation period were characterized using a 30-year moving sample. Evaluation of the values precipitation norms and the analysis of tendencies for all months as well as probability of anomaly calculated by means of gamma distribution were described. It was established that probability of occurrence of precipitations below the lower limit of the norm at all the stations displayed a significant increasing trend in August and precipitation exceeding the upper limit of the norm – showed a significantly decreasing trend. A growing, mostly significant trend of probability of occurrence of high precipitation was found in all examined localities in June and September.
Bibliografia
Banaszkiewicz B., Grabowska K., 2009. Precipitation conditions in the Narew valley and the Biebrza basin in the years 1951–2000. In: Environmental aspects of climate changes. Ser. Contemporary Problems of Management and Environmental Protection, UWM Olsztyn, vol. 6, 123–134.
Banaszkiewicz B., Grabowska K., 2010a. Characterization of selected precipitation conditions of the north-eastern Poland in the years 1951–2000. Zesz. Probl. Post. Nauk Rol. 547, 15–24.
Banaszkiewicz B., Grabowska K., 2010b. Selected characteristics of precipitation conditions of the north-eastern Poland in the years 1951–2000. Acta Agrophysica, Rozprawy i Monografie 184 (5), 148–157.
Banaszkiewicz B., Grabowska K., Dymerska A., 2011. Selected precipitation characteristics of seasons in north-eastern Poland in 1951–2000. In: Climate and agroclimate of North-Eastern Poland. Ser. Contemporary Problems of Management and Environmental Protection, UWM Olsztyn, vol. 10, 69–77.
Kędziora A., 2010. Zmiany klimatyczne i ich wpływ na warunki wodne krajobrazu rolniczego. In: Klimatyczne zagrożenia rolnictwa w Polsce, Rozprawy i Studia 773 (847), Wydaw. Nauk. US, 103–136.
Kondracki J., 2009. Geografia regionalna Polski. Wydaw. Nauk. PWN, Warszawa, 11–215.
Łupiksza E., 2007. Metody analiz przestrzennych w badaniu zmienności opadów w Europie, Rocz. Geomat. 5 (1), 71–82.
Mrugała S., 1997. Próba określenia naturalnej normy i anomalii opadów atmosferycznych. Prz. Geofiz. 42 (2), 169–174.
Mrugała S., 2001. Opady atmosferyczne o normalnej i anormalnej wysokości na obszarze Polski (1951–1990). Rozpr. Hab. Wydz. BiNoZ 66, Wydaw. UMCS, Lublin.
Otop I., Kuchar L., 2004. Zmienność opadów atmosferycznych sezonu letniego w Jeleniej Górze w latach 1951–2000. Acta Sci. Pol., Formatio Circumiectus 3 (2), 101–111.
Serba T., Leśny J., Juszczak R., Olejnik J., 2009. Wpływ zmian klimatycznych na rolnictwo w Europie. Projekt Adagio. Acta Agrophysica 13 (2), 487–496.
Szwejkowski Z., Dragańska E., Banaszkiewicz B., 2008. Forecast of agroclimatic characteristics of Olsztyn area in the perspective of global warming in the year 2050. Acta Agrophysica 12 (2), 543–552.
Ustrnul Z., (2004). Metody analizy przestrzennej w badaniach klimatologicznych. In: Zastosowanie wybranych metod statystycznych w klimatologii. IGiGP UJ, Kraków, 67–88.
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